Late Fall vs. The Cyber Five

The period known as the Cyber 5, spanning from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, has become a pinnacle of heightened shopping activity, yielding remarkable sales, and a subsequent halo effect for the slurry of ecommerce traffic. Notably, consumers are displaying a sustained tendency to initiate holiday purchases ahead of time, manifesting in a burgeoning sales growth trajectory observed earlier in the season during October and early November. This pattern is anticipated to persist due to apprehensions related to shipping delays, coupled with the inclination to distribute holiday expenditures over an extended period.

In CJ's network, October's highest growth days were Sundays, followed by Mondays. Sales and revenue growth on Sundays may reflect enhanced presence and conversion on mobile devices. The middle of November was the peak week for growth with revenue during the week of November 13 increasing 4% YOY.

Shifting shopping timelines, in tandem with the ongoing spectre of inflation, appear to have exerted an influence on the outcomes of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The prelude to these traditional shopping milestones, evident in the days leading up to Black Friday (11/25) and Cyber Monday (11/28), seems to have impacted their performance, evidenced by Black Friday's revenue receding by 3% YOY and Cyber Monday registering a 2% YOY increase. Notably, the Sunday nestled between Black Friday and Cyber Monday registered the most significant revenue upswing, exhibiting a 4% YOY rise. This phenomenon hints at the possibility that consumers are diversifying their holiday shopping activities across multiple days, or alternatively, are scouting for deals beyond the confines of the conventional shopping weekend.

Overall, the data gleaned from sales patterns suggests that the escalation in revenue growth figures can be attributed more to inflationary pressures than an outright surge in sales volume, a trend underscored by a downturn in network activities throughout Q4. The preceding October bore witness to an array of online shopping events, effectively initiating the unofficial onset of the holiday season. A parallel pattern is anticipated for the current year, prolonging the shopping season, and conceivably encroaching upon the Cyber Five's market share.

Top Performing Categories

The growth in revenue for various categories —including accessories, air, banking, beauty, business, clothing/apparel, food & drinks, hotel, and sports & fitness, can be attributed to several factors, such as continued demand, gifting, and of course, the not-so-subtle nudge of inflation. On the other hand, the downturn in select categories might be attributed to a cocktail of inflation's influence, evolving consumer priorities, and a dash of market oversaturation.
If the recent Prime Day 2023 performance is any indication of this year’s trends, this year may see a shift in top categories. Categories that drove sales during Prime Day shifted from the previous year—home goods, household essentials, fashion, and consumer electronics were the most popular purchases during the event. Influencers also played a significant role in promoting these categories, demonstrating their increasing influence on consumer preferences.
During Q4 2022, despite a historical lull in booking volume, travel managed to stand tall, propped up by rising demand and accompanying price hikes. Meanwhile, the world of financial institutions saw its star ascend as inflation-fearing consumers sought sanctuary in their offerings, resulting in a notable uptick in their activity during those crucial months.
This year, we expect a combination of retail growth coming from two fronts: the emerging categories like clothing/apparel and beauty, and the categories that have recently faced declines, such as computer & electronics and home & garden. The potential renewal of significant purchases in these categories, which previously hindered their growth, could play a pivotal role in shaping the growth trajectory in the next quarter.

Age of Mobile-First

The trend in shopping that just won’t quit is mobile. Consumers are continually shifting shopping conversions from desktop.

According to eMarketer, last year, mobile shopping drove over half (51%) of sales during the Cyber Five period, per Adobe Analytics data. They predict US retail mobile conversions during the holiday season sales will increase by double digits this year, reaching $129.24 billion. CJ Data confirmed that shoppers this year were as comfortable as ever with making their seasonal gifting purchases via smartphone, especially on Black Friday and the weekend days immediately after. On Black Friday, retail’s share of revenue from smartphones was 39% and then jumped to 42% on the Saturday and Sunday that preceded Cyber Monday.

As shopping experiences on mobile devices constantly improve, it becomes crucial to have the most comprehensive tracking of mobile web and in-app purchases to ensure the success of your programmes. This includes leveraging CJ's integration with Button's PostTap App™. In 2022, we observed a significant growth in mobile phone usage for peak season orders, with 40% of all network orders being completed on mobile devices between October and December. Additionally, revenue generated from mobile devices accounted for 36% of all network revenue during the same period, marking a notable 4% year over year increase.

The Power of Publishers

As more brands are activating the influencer and creator community, last year content publishers and influencers revelled in a growth spurt, boasting a 32% YoY and 11% YoY surge.

Google’s “Messy Middle” analysis explored what happens inside that convoluted shopping funnel, where consumers sway and ponder, being "present" is the secret sauce. Cosy up to a delightful assortment of publisher models to win hearts and preferences. Affiliate publishers, particularly, make a huge contribution during the exploration and evaluation phase. They're your ticket to constantly staying present during this pivotal stage, earning brownie points with potential buyers.

A vibrant mix of publisher models thrive in the channel and cater to evolving consumer needs, spinning ecommerce innovations like basket abandonment and flexible payment technologies. And, despite the notion that most affiliate customer journeys involve multiple publishers, they usually don't compete for conversions. Instead, they work in harmony, adding layers of value to the customer journey. So, now’s the time to embrace ongoing recruitment and diversification, embracing publishers of all shapes and sizes. This approach empowers advertisers to connect with fresh, unique audiences through publishers who cater precisely to consumer desires, paving the path toward efficiency and sustainable growth.